The US stock market faces the largest "Triple Witching Day" in history, Bitcoin's momentum is insufficient and may continue to consolidate.

Market Observation

The Fed kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged this week, in line with expectations but with an overall hawkish stance. Officials are divided on future policy, with 10 expecting at least two rate cuts this year and seven expecting rates to remain unchanged. Inflation is currently close to the 2% target but has not yet been fully reached, and a premature rate cut could lead to a rebound in inflation.

This Friday, approximately $6.5 trillion in U.S. stock options and derivative contracts will expire, and this "Triple Witching Day" event could pose volatility risks for the market next week. Since May, the intraday volatility of U.S. stocks has been relatively moderate, thanks to the "pinning effect" created by a large amount of put option trading earlier this year. Analysts believe that this expiration date may become one of the largest expiration events in history, and investors need to be cautious of potential market volatility risks.

A senior executive of a certain group recently stated that the virtual asset industry has entered the second growth curve phase, with the focus shifting from "digital native" to "digital twin." He pointed out that digital twin is the largest innovation of distributed ledger technology, with stablecoins and asset tokenization being the most representative. Stablecoins are essentially currency tokenization, possessing both legal and technical attributes, and are considered the optimal form of currency at present, expected to play an important role in the future global financial system. Compliant exchanges have foundational capabilities in regulation, asset custody, and clearing and settlement, and are expected to become a global hub for virtual assets.

The crypto market has been flat in recent days, with the price of Bitcoin basically unchanged on the 3rd, and the 24-hour liquidation was less than $100 million. According to the analysis, the rising geopolitical tensions have increased risk aversion, and the demand for traditional safe-haven assets has increased, while the demand for risky assets such as Bitcoin has decreased. Technically, Bitcoin is constrained by multiple moving average resistance near $106,000, with sluggish trading volume and RSI near the midline, indicating a strong wait-and-see mood. In the short term, if it breaks through the MA resistance, it may challenge the high of $112,000, but the current momentum is insufficient, and it may continue to consolidate.

Several analysis institutions have pointed out that the market is characterized by low volatility, narrowing price ranges, and weakened on-chain activity, with retail participation declining and institutional investors taking the lead. If demand continues to deteriorate, Bitcoin may fall back to the support level of $92,000, or even drop to $81,000. Although spot demand is still growing, it is below trend levels.

The price of Solana is fluctuating in the key support range of $140-145. Analysts suggest establishing long positions in the $128-140 range, with target prices of $204.31, $229.01, and $258.45 respectively. However, if the $140 support is broken, it may accelerate downward to $102-103. A breakout above $160-170 accompanied by increased trading volume could reverse the bearish trend, with upward targets pointing to $180-$220. An ETF for Solana submitted by a certain institution has been registered with the DTCC, and analysts believe the probability of approval is still high, which may inject confidence into the market.

In the altcoin market, the MEME coin LABUBU fell 23% in 24 hours, and its market capitalization fell from $60 million to $27 million, which may be related to the collapse of the price of trendy toys. In the Solana ecosystem, the experimental chain Gorbagana token $GOR once reached a market value of $40 million. The popularity of the Meme coin on Avalanche has cooled, and the new listing of $PUFF has a market cap of $3.6 million and a $MEOW of $2.2 million. A fund continues to buy altcoins, with the top three holdings being CAKE, LISTA and SKYAI.

Key Data

• Bitcoin: $104,658, year-to-date +11.46%
• Ethereum: $2,520.03, -24.9% YTD
• Fear of Corruption Index: 48 (neutral)
• Market share: BTC 64.1%, ETH 9.4%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.10206
• 24-hour liquidation: total $89.34 million, BTC $10.69 million, ETH $18.12 million, SOL $5.38 million

ETF Flow

• Bitcoin ETF: +$390 million (net inflow for 8 consecutive days)
• Ethereum ETF: +$19.0998 million (net inflow for 3 consecutive days)

Today's Preview

• A certain exchange will include Alpha holding points for slisBNB and clisBNB.
• A number of exchanges will delist some trading pairs
• Lista DAO will unlock about 33.44 million tokens, worth about $7 million
• SPACE ID will unlock approximately 72.65 million tokens, worth about 12 million dollars.

Hot News

• Bitcoin on-chain trading volume hit an 18-month low
• Semler Scientific appoints Bitcoin Strategic Director, plans to hold 105,000 Bitcoins by the end of 2027.
• 49% of surveyed institutions worldwide have used stablecoins for payments.
• The listed company's Bitcoin reserves exceed 768,500 coins, worth over 8.2 billion USD.
• Fidelity: The growth rate of the "ancient supply" of Bitcoin that has not moved for over ten years has surpassed the daily new output.
• SOL Strategies submitted a registration statement to the SEC, planning to list on Nasdaq under the ticker "STKE".
• Fetch.ai will launch a $50 million FET token buyback program

! HashKey Trading Moment: The largest "Three Witch Days" (6.5 trillion) in the history of U.S. stocks is approaching, and Bitcoin is currently running out of momentum or continues to consolidate