In-depth Analysis of the Relationship Between Bitcoin Halving and Macroeconomics

The "Halving" event of Bitcoin has always been considered an important factor driving its price increase. However, it is not sufficient to understand the impact of the Halving solely from an emotional perspective. In fact, Halving means that the output of Bitcoin is reduced by half while the overall network hash rate remains unchanged. This directly leads to an increase in the production cost of Bitcoin.

Due to miners' expectations of rising prices and the fixed costs already incurred, the overall hash rate of Bitcoin is likely to further increase after the Halving. This will further raise the production costs of Bitcoin, thereby supporting its price increase. Historical data shows that the peaks of Bitcoin bull markets typically occur over a year after the Halving.

However, focusing solely on Halving may overlook the broader macroeconomic factors influencing Bitcoin prices. By analyzing past bull markets, we can find that there is a certain correlation between Bitcoin prices and U.S. monetary policy.

Specifically:

1. In November 2013, Bitcoin reached its peak, exactly about 22 months after the M2 growth rate in the United States peaked in January 2012.

2. In December 2017, Bitcoin reached its peak, approximately 14 months after the M2 growth rate in the US peaked in October 2016.

3. In November 2021, Bitcoin reached its peak, approximately 9 months after the M2 growth rate in the US peaked in February 2021.

Interestingly, the peak prices of Bitcoin seem to have a certain correlation with the U.S. presidential election cycle. The last three bull market highs occurred approximately 12 months after the U.S. elections.

These phenomena suggest that the design of Bitcoin may have taken into account the policies and economic cycles of the United States. During U.S. elections, a relatively loose monetary policy is typically adopted, which increases market liquidity, and some funds may flow into speculative markets, including cryptocurrencies.

To assess the future market trends, we need to consider the Halving factor and the macroeconomic environment comprehensively. The shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, especially the beginning of the interest rate cut cycle, may become an important trigger for the next bull market. However, due to the current historical tightening phase of dollar liquidity, even if the interest rate cuts begin, the market may require some time to regain vitality.

Therefore, investors need to be patient when looking for "bottom fishing" opportunities and closely monitor the Federal Reserve's policy signals. At the same time, investment in small-cap cryptocurrencies requires extra caution. Although there may be some speculative opportunities in the short term, the long-term risks remain high.