The New Era of Crypto: "The 4-Year Cycle" Has Ended – Predicting a Stable Growth Phase

In a notable statement on the social media platform X on July 25, Mr. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise – one of the leading cryptoassets management organizations – stated that the traditional 4-year cycle of the crypto market is no longer applicable, and instead, we are entering a phase of more stable and long term growth due to structural driving forces. Why is the "4-Year Cycle" Dead? Hougan's opening question has sparked curiosity among investors: "Why has the 4-year cycle died?" According to him, the core factors that once shaped previous cycles — particularly the halving events that cut block rewards in half and the macroeconomic context — no longer play a decisive role. "The forces that once created previous cycles have weakened," Hougan emphasized. He pointed out that the current interest rate environment – which was once a major barrier to cryptoassets – has now become more favorable. In addition, the maturity of large financial institutions participating in the market has helped mitigate the risk of systemic collapse, which is a common feature seen in previous boom periods. New Risks: The Rise of Companies Holding Cryptoassets However, Hougan also warns of a new cyclical risk that is emerging: the rise of companies holding large amounts of cryptoassets in the form of (Treasury companies). This is a factor that investors need to closely monitor, as it could create unexpected impacts on the market. The Long Term Forces Changing the Game Hougan argues that currently, the market is being influenced by stronger forces, with longer cycles, and is no longer synchronized with the previous 4-year pattern. He presents a series of factors indicating that crypto is entering a new cycle: The movement of assets into ETF ( Exchange-Traded Funds ) has been occurring for many years. Major legal reforms are set to begin in early 2025, creating a clearer legal framework for digital assets. The rate of adoption by traditional financial institutions is accelerating, as pension funds, universities, and major financial organizations start to consider allocating to crypto. "Wall Street has just begun to build infrastructure for crypto," he added. "And there will be billions of dollars poured in over the coming quarters and years." Genius Act: Game-Changing Turning Point One of the standout factors driving institutional money flow is the Genius Act, passed in July 2025. This law is seen as an important catalyst for legalizing and encouraging the participation of large financial institutions in the digital asset market. Forecast for 2026: A Promising Year but Not a "Super Cycle" At the end of the sharing session, Hougan stated: "All of this shows that the forces supporting crypto in the long term will outweigh the old cyclical factors. I believe that 2026 will be a positive year." However, he also emphasized that the market will still face significant volatility, and "this will be a period of stable growth lasting longer than a super cycle." Conclusion Matt Hougan's statement not only opens a new perspective for investors but also reflects a profound shift in the way the crypto market operates. As major financial institutions, laws, and technology collectively push forward, perhaps it's time for investors to change their perception of the cryptocurrency market cycle – from short term to long term, from speculation to strategic investment. ➡️ Investor suggestion: This could be an opportunity to build a long term portfolio and take advantage of the upcoming period of "prolonged stable growth" that the crypto market is about to enter. However, as Hougan warns: "Volatility will still occur" — and preparing for that remains the wisest strategy.