Year-End Special Review: Outlook on Bitcoin's Future and Macroeconomic Trends

Recently, an online discussion themed "The Future of Bitcoin and Macroeconomic Trends" has attracted widespread attention. Several industry experts conducted an in-depth discussion on significant events in the crypto market for 2024 and their impacts, including the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, the arrival of the halving cycle, and key milestones such as Trump's victory. The experts analyzed the underlying logic behind these events from their respective professional perspectives and offered unique insights into the market trends for 2025.

2024 Market Review

2024 is a crucial year for the entire crypto market. Important events such as the Bitcoin halving, the approval of the Bitcoin ETF in the United States, and Trump's victory have driven the market up, with Bitcoin surpassing one hundred thousand dollars. At the same time, more institutions, companies, and even countries are beginning to participate in the crypto space.

Experts believe that the direct involvement of the Trump family in DeFi projects is an unexpected shift that could disrupt the regular four-year halving cycle of Bitcoin. The attitude of the mainstream financial markets in the United States towards crypto assets has fundamentally changed, with many teams beginning to return to the US, indicating that the entire industry is moving towards mainstream adoption.

Another striking phenomenon is the rise of AI projects like GOAT. There is a viewpoint that smart contracts may be inherently designed for AI agents rather than for humans. In the future, there could be a vast number of AI agents utilizing blockchain technology to perform various functions such as payments and DeFi, which may be the true intersection of crypto and AI.

Bitcoin Breaks $100,000 Market Pattern

Regarding the viewpoint that retail investors may find it difficult to participate after Bitcoin breaks the $100,000 mark, experts believe that this concern may be exaggerated. While it may become challenging to achieve the same ease of obtaining hundredfold or thousandfold returns as before, Bitcoin remains a great investment and financial management tool. For ordinary investors, the key is to maintain patience, focus on areas they truly understand, and align ideologically with the projects.

Experts suggest that investors may consider including Bitcoin as part of their investment portfolio, alongside assets such as US stocks and gold. For investors with relatively less capital, it may be advisable to allocate 50% to Bitcoin and invest the remaining 50% in some lower market cap secondary market projects or primary market projects.

Institutional Investment Strategy

In 2024, institutions such as MicroStrategy and BlackRock played an important role in the rise of Bitcoin. Experts believe that as long as Bitcoin does not experience a significant crash, more companies will inevitably follow MicroStrategy's strategy. This institutional participation has actually expanded the inclusiveness of Bitcoin, allowing more people who cannot directly purchase or manage Bitcoin to participate in the market.

However, experts also remind that concentrated institutional holdings may affect price volatility, which is one of the risks that investors need to pay attention to. It is expected that institutions like MicroStrategy may stop increasing their holdings when they own 7-8% of Bitcoin, as excessive concentration can impact the decentralized nature of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Ecosystem Status and Future

Regarding the development of the Bitcoin ecosystem, experts believe it is necessary to distinguish between the Bitcoin ecosystem, BTC-Fi, and Bitcoin Layer 2 concepts. Bitcoin Layer 2 is currently in a semi-falsifiable state, and its development momentum in terms of EVM is not very ideal. Experts are more optimistic about the exploration of native Bitcoin Layer 2, such as the Lightning Network, RGB++, and so on.

For BTC-Fi, experts believe that this field is just beginning. If it can provide safe and stable returns, even if it’s only 2-3 percent in coin-based returns, it will attract some large investors to participate. It is advisable to explore the cooperation model between on-chain projects and traditional financial institutions.

The Outlook of Bitcoin During Trump's Tenure

Experts believe that after Trump takes office, the Republican Party controlling both the House and Senate may make it easier for some bills favorable to the development of cryptocurrencies to pass. It is expected that the following changes may be seen during Trump's term:

• Bitcoin and other crypto assets may become strategic reserves for countries or sovereigns.
• More countries and regions may follow suit and establish special zones for more radical attempts.
• The scope of ETF issuance may expand to include spot ETFs of other crypto assets.
• A clear plan for stablecoins as an alternative to the US dollar may be introduced.
• A new regulatory framework related to ICOs and fundraising may be established.

However, experts also remind us to view the policy benefits rationally and to pay attention to the actual implementation methods and pace of the policies.

2025 Market Prediction

Regarding the market trend for 2025, experts believe that the likelihood of a bull-bear transition occurring in the first quarter is low, and it may not happen until the second quarter or later. Reasons include:

• In the first 100 days after Trump took office, many promises may gradually be fulfilled.
• The policy bill has a greater impact on smart contract platforms, especially in terms of regulation of stablecoins and token issuance.
• If regulation becomes clearer, it will be a major benefit for smart contract platforms like ETH and Solana.
• The pace of development for Layer 2 by major American companies is accelerating, and this trend may continue.

Experts predict that several important structural changes may occur in 2025:

• Traditional financial institutions will become more deeply involved in the crypto market.
• Large tech companies may incorporate cryptocurrencies into their balance sheets.
• Layer 2 ecosystem may experience explosive growth
• The integration of DeFi and traditional finance will accelerate.

Overall, experts are optimistic about the long-term prospects of the market, but they remind investors to be wary of short-term fluctuations and not to be shaken out. For entrepreneurs, this could be a rare opportunity period.