The August curse returns! Alts fall 13% with hidden secrets, historical data suggests a 140% big pump season is imminent.

The crypto market is once again showing the seasonal pattern of "August pullback, September explosion," with the total market capitalization of alts having fallen by 13% from its peak. Historical data shows that in August 2023/2024, alts plummeted by 28%/40%, followed by rebounds exceeding 140% in the subsequent months. Currently, the alt season index has risen to 45, while BTC's dominance has dropped to 62%, indicating initial signs of capital rotation. Eric Trump, Trump's second son, advocates "buy the dip BTC/ETH," coupled with Ethereum's strong performance, which may trigger a full-blown alt season. The approval expectation for the ETH Spot ETF is a key catalyst.

Is the August pullback a golden buying opportunity? History hides a 140% rebound pattern August has traditionally been the "hell month" for alts, but it often nurtures explosive market conditions. Analyst AshCrypto pointed out on platform X: In August 2023, the market capitalization of alts fell by 28%, and during the same period in 2024, it plummeted by 40%. However, in the following months, it achieved an astonishing increase of over 140%. This year's script seems familiar — the total market capitalization of alts has retreated 13% from its peak, and if it drops another 8-10%, it may reach a temporary bottom. Historical patterns strongly suggest that the current pullback may be a golden layout window before the outbreak of a new round of alt season.

Ethereum shows a leading position, alt season index approaches the critical point Key signals are gathering:

1. Indicator Movement: After predicting that ETH would reach $8000, Eric Trump recently issued a call to "buy the dip BTC/ETH". His influence, combined with Ethereum's historical role as the altcoin market engine, releases a strong bullish signal.

2. Index Change: Altcoin Season Index rises to 45, continuously approaching the threshold of 75+ that marks the full launch of alt season.

   

   (Source: Coinglass)

3. Capital Rotation: Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) has retreated from a high of 65% in July to 62%, indicating that capital is slowly flowing from BTC to altcoins. If this trend continues and ETH remains strong, it will ignite a bullish trend in the entire altcoin market.

Technical analysis is forming a bottom, an 8-10% downside may be the final test The total market capitalization of alts has pulled back by 13% from its peak. According to historical patterns, a further fall of 8-10% may complete the ultimate washout. Investors need to observe closely:

• Can ETH hold the weekly support at $3450
• Will BTC dominance fall below 60%?
• Is there a sudden increase in the inflow of stablecoin on-chain?

Conclusion: The seasonal rotation pattern of altcoins, characterized by "fall in August and rise in September," has been validated by data again, with a 13% pullback aligning closely with historical bottom features. The approval window for the Ethereum Spot ETF (end of August to early September) resonates with capital rotation signals, and the Altcoin season index at 45 suggests the market is on the brink of an explosion. Investors are advised to adopt a batch investment strategy, focusing on the ETH ecosystem L2 track, RWA concepts, and leading projects with high FDV and low circulation. Caution is needed regarding the transmission of fluctuations in the US stock market and the sudden siphoning effect of BTC; if the total market capitalization of altcoins breaks through 1.2 trillion USD in a single week, it will confirm the beginning of a bull market's main upward wave.