Opinion: LetsBonk will dominate in the short term, while PumpFun may change strategies to achieve a comeback.

The Memecoin market is declining, and PumpFun's strategic transformation may become the biggest winner.

Written by: miya

Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow

First of all, this is not an attack on LetsBonk; I think the Bonk team led by Tom has done an excellent job of winning the favor of memecoins, making any counterattack seem meaningless. LetsBonk has won the memecoin battle and will continue to maintain its dominance.

PumpFun is winning. Your first reaction might be to mock me for not understanding the market. But before jumping to conclusions, let's take a look at some data that clearly shows PumpFun is not winning.

LetsBonk has not only successfully captured market awareness in daily token issuance but has also become the absolute leader in the field of token issuance.

LetsBonk is currently leading in the number of tokens issued by about 3.7 times and has successfully captured 65.1% of the market share in just one month. Additionally, the token distribution event of LetsBonk is about 7.8 times that of PumpFun. Although PumpFun has a higher token issuance volume in each distribution event, LetsBonk has become a more expected value (+EV) trading launch platform.

So, why is PumpFun considered to be winning right now? All indicators and charts seem to show a gap. Let me explain:

Now is the time to understand from a broader perspective why PumpFun's strategy has been executed so perfectly to this day.

PumpFun's revenue plummeted from $7.07 million to $469,000, a decrease of $6.601 million, with a 93.4% drop in peak revenue over 24 hours.

Memecoins are fading away. Since February 2025, the entire market has been in continuous decline. This is not only reflected in PumpFun's 24-hour revenue plummeting by 93.4%, but also affects LetsBonk, with the entire market size shrinking.

The trading volume share may present the following situation:

The actual market size that these two are competing for is as follows:

This chart does not yet take into account the significant increase in robot activity, and the actual decline in real user trading volume is even more severe.

Since the release of the Celebrity Coin Metaverse data, the risk appetite for Solana memecoins has been continuously declining. Major mining events such as MELANIA and LIBRA have accelerated this downward trend.

Retail investors' risk appetite.

It can be said fairly that memecoins are no longer as glorious as they used to be. To understand why the actual situation is worse than what is seen from the outside, please refer to the detailed analysis in the three articles I published earlier.

The memecoin super cycle has entered a complete conclusion.

For a company that aims to operate for more than two years, Memecoin is not an ideal future investment. Memecoin trading has evolved into not just an ordinary casino, but also a betting ground with extremely low expected value (-EV).

"Oh, but they are already addicted, just squeezing more capital from the traders."

Let me give you a simple and understandable metaphor: it's like you went to a restaurant that has charming decor, affordable prices, and excellent service, making you feel like you're in paradise. However, every time you finish, it leaves you in agony. I ask you, would you frequently choose such dining service?

Look, even the most gambling-addicted players are leaving the Memecoin market because they know they will ultimately be "tortured beyond endurance." Those savvy market participants have developed extremely advanced tools and possess information advantages (such as FNF and insider coins), leaving ordinary traders further behind in the future. This is an irreversible path: insider advantages are gradually increasing while the capital available to ordinary traders is gradually decreasing.

So let's return to the title: Why will PumpFun win?

Let me ask the following question: If you were Alon (CEO of PumpFun), what different choices would you make?

Option 1: Use your strong capital to buy back $PUMP.

Alright, let's assume he now establishes a $200 million fund to repurchase $PUMP using TWAP (Time Weighted Average Price) over the next 31 days, and the generated fees will be used for a 100% revenue buyback. Does that solve all problems? No, not at all. The Memecoin market is still in continuous decline, and PumpFun still bears the heavy brand image of a "memecoin launchpad." Repurchasing $PUMP won't bring market risk appetite back to past highs, nor will it restore the liquidity needed to support organic "hot coins." Will it boost market sentiment in the short term? It might. But will it revive the memecoin market? No. This will be a capital-intensive commitment poured into a declining market, which is detrimental to long-term sustainability.

Option 2: Airdrop $PUMP to users and create new liquidity.

Similarly, the only result of this approach is to inject capital into a declining market and a shrinking market share. PumpFun will take the risk of distributing free funds, which not only cannot be recovered but, worse, may flow into the hands of competitors.

Alon has almost perfectly executed the strategy of this hypothesis to date.

PumpFun must evolve. It is pointless to continue competing in this already stagnant memecoin gambling space, treating dead horses as if they were alive.

So, let's take a look at what is happening right now.

LetsBonk has invested most of its expenses into BONK and GP, but does not have a large reserve of funds. Insiders hold a significant allocation in projects like BONK and USELESS, which is essentially their way of cashing out and making money through the Launchpad. Regardless of what happens next, they may attract market attention, but they lack financial support.

They may be losing the memecoin war, but given the market's extremely low expectations for the future of this sector, winning this war may actually be worse than losing it.

@rasmr_eth made some suggestions for the future of PumpFun, one key point being to create a $200 million "blockbuster project" on PF (like ChillHouse). However, I believe this is a completely unnecessary investment and further indicates that PumpFun is still competing in a declining market. I think PumpFun has given up on the idea of reviving memecoins; otherwise, they wouldn't have stopped tweeting for a week straight and would not have abandoned the competition with LetsBonk.

Although I don't understand the specific actions of PumpFun internally at the moment, I know that Solana Labs is preparing for ICM: bringing back utility to its chain during the upcoming bear market cycle.

Regardless of the narrative that unfolds next, PumpFun is financially well-prepared to stay ahead of any other participants.

I also think it's very ridiculous that Alon would give up on the idea of PumpFun.

PumpFun has a mature brand, extensive connections within the Solana ecosystem, and a clear company structure. No one would abandon a well-operated company just because they cashed out a certain amount; this viewpoint is unfounded in the field of business development (BD) and is merely propagated by those speculators who are accustomed to "cashing out events." While I don't believe Alon will reinvest all the income back into the business, I am confident that PumpFun will successfully attempt to conquer the next market in Solana during the upcoming bear market cycle.

I believe that $PUMP is one of the choices worth holding long-term in the upcoming bear market. If you think this cycle will last for another year, then the current price is a reasonable investment point.

I hold $PUMP in the spot market as a hedge against my potential misjudgment that the cycle is about to end. I believe there are hardly any other high liquidity altcoins that are better suited for this bet than $PUMP.