Layer 2's tens of billions of market value is under the multi-party competition, but the zkSync ecology is falsely prosperous

Author: yyy

The overall TVL of the Layer 2 track has recently touched the tens of billions of dollars one after another, and the ecology of the second-layer chain presents a "thriving" scene. zkSync still ranks third in the L2 track, second only to Arbitrum and Optimism, with an on-chain TVL of nearly $500 million.

Why do you say that the prosperity of zkSync ecology is false prosperity?

Before answering this question, let's take a look at the recent TVL trend of the two big brothers Arbitrum and OP on the second floor.

According to L2Beat data:

• Arbitrum TVL trades in tight range around $6 billion;
• OP has been positive recently, TVL has also hit a new high, and ATH has exceeded 2.5 billion US dollars;

The TVL of the two accounts for nearly 85% of the L2 track, occupying an absolute dominance.

On the other hand, zkSync, affected by the continuous ferment of the "random" airdrop NFT incident against the community in the past few days, TVL has fallen precipitously. The funds left, and most of the funds rushed to another unissued zk-Rollup StarkNet. The TVL on the SarkNet chain increased by nearly 34% in a week.

Let me talk about the conclusion first: the prosperity of zkSync on the chain is based on its potential airdrop expectations, brought by airdrop hunters. At least for now.

Next, we will demonstrate the above conclusions from three points: the ecological complexity of the chain, the breadth of infrastructure applications, and the NFT "random" airdrop event.

On-chain ecological complexity

The complexity of the ecology on the chain represents the innovation ability, which can bring more diversified application scenarios to users, thereby stimulating the needs of users. For L2, the ecological complexity on the chain ≈ the Defi complexity on the chain. This kind of defi Lego with certain Ponzi attributes is particularly important for the prosperity of the ecology on the chain.

Let’s start with Big Brother Arbitrum:

The TVL of the leading protocol GMX is as high as 500 million dollars. It is also one of the best decentralized derivatives trading protocols in the encryption market, and it is also one of the few complex defi protocols that have survived for a long time. In addition, Radiant Capital, a lending agreement that has just taken Binance financing, is based on L0's cross-chain infrastructure to realize the application scenario of asset cross-chain lending.

Let’s take a look at the second brother OP:

The leading protocol is a 33 DEX Velodrome, based on the Solidly imitation disk innovation, and has now become one of the most important hubs in the OP ecosystem, radiating other protocols in the entire ecosystem. Sonne Finance is based on the rise of Velodrome, and is currently the largest native lending agreement in the OP ecosystem. A positive economic flywheel has been created through the bribery and lock-up mechanism to feed back the OP ecology.

In summary:

• Arbitrum: Innovative application scenarios such as complex derivatives transactions and cross-chain lending;
• OP imitates the set of Ethereum Curve ecological bribery to achieve a positive economic flywheel.

It can be said that the complexity of the ecology on the chain is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the prosperity of the ecology on the chain, and the complex defi Lego must be the foundation of a prosperous ecology.

Let’s take a look at the third brother zkSync:

SyncSwap is the absolute leader, with a TVL of $82 million, accounting for nearly half of zkSync TVL.

Let’s not list the leading agreement here, after all, it has become “famous” recently. On-chain entrepreneurial disks and local dog disks are flying all over the sky, and the main theme is "rug". Airdrop hunters hold up half the sky for zkSync's TVL.

Wide range of infrastructure applications

OP/ Arbitrum/ zkSync have launched a modular stack for developers to easily start L2/L3.

• OP: ON Stack；
• Arbitrum: Arbitrum Orbit；
• zkSync: zkSync HyperChain。

The most widely used at present, deservedly is the OP Stack.

After Coinbase announced to build L2 Base based on OP Stack, more and more projects joined this camp: including but not limited to: Binance opBNB, a16z, Worldcoin, Zora, Manta Network.

Syndr, a derivatives trading protocol, recently announced the construction of an L3 application chain based on Arbitrum Orbit. Protocols such as Relative and OthersideMeta also have the willingness to build L3 based on Orbit.

In contrast to zkSync, there are few voices discussing its L3 architecture HyperChain in the encryption market, let alone building zk L3 based on HyperChain.

NFT "Random" Airdrop

zkSync officially airdropped NFT to 10,000 "random" addresses of its eco-users, and the "random" addresses that were picked up later basically all start with 0x0, and even some inactive addresses with 0 transactions and only 1-2 transactions. Later, under the pressure of public opinion, the officials came out to refute the rumor that their definition of "random" was inaccurate, and it was the top 10,000 eligible addresses.

The NFT "random" airdrop event became the trigger for zkSync's TVL to drop sharply. In just one week, the TVL fell by nearly 80 million US dollars, a drop of 16%+.

At the same time, zkSync's competitor - StarkNet, the same potential currency project, saw a TVL increase of nearly 35% during the same period.

There is reason to believe that a large part of this large increase or decrease of funds between chains is caused by the change of strategy of the Maomao Party.

This also confirms from the side that there are very few users with real needs on the zkSync chain, and the ecological prosperity on the chain is "pseudo-prosperity", which is based on the demand derived from the expectation of zkSync's currency issuance.

For the other 2 big brothers Arbitrum and OP, coins have been issued. Of course, there is also the expectation of retrospective airdrops after the currency is issued, but it is undeniable that there are more users with real and diversified trading needs on Arbitrum/OP.

Here, I can say very subjectively: if there are no users who are masturbating, zkSync is neither.

Faced with such an on-chain ecology and "active" users, I dare to ask: Does zkSync dare to issue coins now? Eliminating the expectation of issuing coins, it is clear at a glance who is better at playing.

In the end, it’s still the same old saying: You don’t know who is swimming naked until the tide goes out.