SOL has fallen again after breaking 600-day resistance! Here are the levels to follow for the new rally…

Solana (SOL), one of the favorite altcoins in the cryptocurrency market, has seen a strong increase since June 10, reaching the yearly high of $ 32.13. This also resulted in a breakout from the long-term descending resistance line.
However, while observing short-term price action, some indicators raise concerns about the possibility of a long-term uptrend reversal. One of the reasons for this doubt is the deviation above a horizontal resistance level.
SOL rally stalled despite long-term breakout
Examining the weekly chart reveals a notable event that occurred three weeks ago. During this time, SOL broke the 600-day resistance line that has been active since November 2021.
Such breakouts usually indicate the end of the previous trend, but also the beginning of a new trend in the opposite direction. As a result, SOL price is now expected to start an uptrend. In this case, the price will gradually increase towards its previous highs.
However, it is important to note that SOL price cannot sustainably surpass the $27 level. This level has created a long upper wick indicating selling pressure.
From technical indicators, the RSI has formed a higher bottom and is now trading above the 50 mark. Last week, it closed above 50. This indicates the robustness of the uptrend.
However, SOL price must surpass the $27 level and close above it for a bullish breakout to be conclusive.
Critical levels for continued uptrend
Although the technical analysis on the weekly chart shows a bullish trend, the daily chart analysis still remains unclear. The primary reason for this uncertainty is the divergence above the $26 resistance point and then a dip below it. Such divergences are typically considered bearish and often lead to significant moves in the opposite direction.
However, the price bounced back later and is now trading near this zone again. So whether this level is rejected or reversed, it will be very important to identify the future trend.
If the price retraces the $26 level, it could quickly rise to the next resistance at $46, an 85% increase from the current price. It is also worth noting that the Solana blockchain experienced zero outages in Q2 of 2023. This is a positive sign after the network was heavily criticized for eight outages in 2022.
There is also a risk that the daily RSI will also drop below the 50 mark. If a rejection from the critical level and an RSI drop occur at the same time, the price will start to move down rapidly.
In such a scenario, SOL price will likely drop to $18, reaching an ascending support line that has been in effect since December 2022. This means that there is a 37% probability of a decrease from the current price.
Therefore, while the long-term forecast for Solana remains bullish, the short-term outlook is bearish as long as the price stays below the flat area at $26.
If the price regains the $26 level, it could rise to $35. But if it fails to do so, it could drop to $18.
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