Toncoin stands firm at $3.40 as Durov arrives in Dubai - Will the uptrend continue?

Just a few days after receiving court approval to leave France, Telegram founder Pavel Durov returned to Dubai — marking a significant turning point in his legal battle.

Durov, who was detained at an airport in Paris last August and banned from leaving France, confirmed his return on Monday, declaring, "It feels great to be home."

The investigation revolves around allegations of illegal activities on the Telegram platform, although Durov asserts that the application always exceeds legal obligations.

Mr. leaving France not only marks a change in legal proceedings but also raises questions about the future of Toncoin (TON).

After the news of Durov being allowed to leave France spread, TON surged more than 20%. However, as the excitement subsided, market attention quickly shifted to technical indicators and trading momentum.

The rise of Toncoin stalled after the weekend breakthrough

TON has made a strong recovery in recent days, rising from $2.59 to $3.66 - a more than 40% increase - after news that Durov was allowed to leave.

However, the price momentum is beginning to weaken, with TON trading at $3.41 at the time of writing, down 1.25% over the past 24 hours.

RSI has dropped from overbought territory to 53.31, signaling weakening buying pressure.

TON/USDT daily chart | Source: TradingViewMeanwhile, the OBV index remains at -835K, indicating that the recent uptrend may lack strong accumulation. The trading volume surged over the weekend is also gradually decreasing, reflecting the hesitation of traders.

Unless there is stronger participation, TON risks entering a short-term accumulation or adjustment phase.

Profitability and on-chain valuation index show a solid foundation

Source: IntoTheBlockTON's profitability metrics reflect strong investor confidence, with up to 73.82% of the total tokens being 'in profit' - meaning the majority of holders bought at a price lower than the current $3.48.

Only 12.25% of wallet addresses are currently in a state of loss, indicating that selling pressure from the resistance zone above is not too significant.

Source: IntoTheBlockThe NVT ratio has experienced significant fluctuations. The decline in early March was followed by a price surge, indicating that the previously low valuation has been adjusted.

In particular, during the period from March 13 to 15, when the price increases, the NVT ratio also decreases, reflecting the support of trading volume for the upward trend.

Currently, with NVT recovering and most wallet addresses still profitable, the overall market structure of TON looks quite robust. However, longer-term growth prospects may depend on maintaining high trading volumes.

Will TON continue to rise?

According to data from DeFiLlama, the total value locked (TVL) of TON has increased from 140 million USD to nearly 170 million USD between March 15 and 17, reflecting investors' growing confidence.

Source: DeFiLlamaAt the same time, data from Santiment shows a sudden increase in whale transactions and the volume of social media interactions remains high just before the price breakout.

Source: SantimentThe strong increase in on-chain activity and social media attention often signals strong speculative momentum. The price has also surpassed the $3.40 level with large trading volumes, further confirming the uptrend.

Although short-term corrections may occur, it seems that the upward momentum of TON still has room to run. Unless market sentiment reverses sharply or macroeconomic factors change, Toncoin appears to be poised to maintain its upward price trend.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Investors should do their research before making decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

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