Will the price of Bitcoin drop to 25,000 USD?

Bitcoin's price is struggling to regain bullish momentum after reaching its peak earlier this year. As of March 29, 2025, the price of BTC is trading around $84,122, showing signs of weakness after a period of consolidation. As investors are concerned about potential falls, a hot question is dominating the cryptocurrency space: Will Bitcoin drop to $25,000? This analysis decodes the current market structure, moving averages, RSI signals, and price action patterns to provide a realistic outlook for Bitcoin in the coming days. Bitcoin Price Prediction: Is BTC losing momentum after the bullish run in 2025?

Looking at the daily chart, it is clear that the exciting bullish phase of Bitcoin from the end of 2024 to the beginning of 2025 has significantly fallen. After reaching a high of nearly 110,000 dollars, the price began a series of lower highs and lower lows - a classic signal of a weakening trend. More concerning is that Bitcoin has failed to reclaim the current 50-day simple moving average at nearly 89,112 dollars, which now acts as a dynamic resistance level. The 20-day SMA has also crossed below the 50-day line, indicating short-term bearish pressure. The recent decline in the price of Bitcoin is largely due to increased global trade tensions, which have created a new wave of instability in the global financial markets. The U.S. government's decision on March 25 to impose a 25% tax on imported cars and other goods from Canada, Mexico, and China has heightened concerns about a looming global economic recession. As a result, investor sentiment has turned sour on risk assets, including stocks and cryptocurrencies. The 1.85% drop in the S&P 500 since the announcement is a clear sign that traditional markets are also feeling the heat, and Bitcoin - often seen as a highly volatile speculative asset - has not escaped the impact either. As protective measures are strengthened and retaliatory trade actions emerge, investors may continue to shift capital into safer, less volatile assets, causing ongoing selling pressure on BTC in the coming time. If these macroeconomic obstacles persist without solutions, Bitcoin may struggle to find support and could potentially revert to much lower levels, possibly even approaching the range of $70,000–$60,000 in the coming weeks. Does the moving average signal a major collapse? Yes, and this is why this is important. The 100-day SMA is at $93,885 and the 200-day SMA is around $85,713, which are currently tightly compressed near the current price range. Historically, when the price struggles with the 200-day SMA from below and fails to hold, it often leads to a rapid decline. If the price of Bitcoin suddenly breaks below the 200-day SMA and stays below $83,000, it will open the gates towards much lower levels, causing panic selling across retail segments and even institutional. What does RSI say about the strength of Bitcoin? The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 43.09, significantly lower than the neutral level of 50 and clearly in a bearish zone. The RSI has not recovered above 50 since the beginning of March, indicating that buyers are gradually losing confidence while sellers are gradually gaining control. In a strong bullish trend, the RSI tends to fluctuate between 50 and 80. The failure to do so here reinforces the argument that Bitcoin may face more pain before any sustainable reversal. Is $25,000 really on the negotiation table? Although a fall to $25,000 seems extreme to many, it cannot be completely ruled out. Bitcoin has a history of brutal corrections - often falling 40–60% after reaching all-time highs. From the recent peak of nearly $110,000, a 60% retracement would bring the price of BTC back down to $44,000. However, if macroeconomic instability, regulatory crackdowns, or black swan events ( such as the collapse of major exchanges ) attack the market, psychological levels like $50,000, $35,000, and even $25,000 could come into play as panic overwhelms fundamental factors. This is not the most likely scenario, but it remains within the realm of possibility - especially if key support levels are broken. At what level should bulls defend to avoid a collapse? The nearest immediate support level is around $83,000, just below the 200-day SMA. If that level holds and Bitcoin price bounces back above $89,000, buyers may regain some short-term control. However, if the $80,000–83,000 range cannot hold, the next support zone will be at $72,000, followed by $60,000—both of which experienced strong accumulation in previous cycles. If these levels also collapse, then yes, $25,000 will become the actual bearish target in the multi-month timeframe. Bitcoin Price Prediction: Is this a drop or the beginning of a major collapse? Currently, Bitcoin is in a precarious zone. The bulls are losing momentum, momentum indicators are fading, and long-term moving averages are beginning to contract in a way that often precedes significant downturns. Although a drop to $25,000 is not imminent, this is a scenario that traders and investors must prepare for if the current supports do not hold.