The ETH chart shows that the price will increase by 100% to $5,000: What is the probability of growth?

The price chart of Ethereum (ETH) shows the "Power of 3" setup according to the textbook after the adjustment to $2,100 - $2,200 that occurred last Sunday. This volatility occurred after a period of price consolidation from May 9 to June 20.

The sudden liquidity storm has brought ETH back to a multi-month support level, but buyers quickly absorbed the decline, pushing the price back to $2,500 on Monday.

Ether is preparing for the "strongest price surge" in Q3

The Power of 3 model, or "AMD" for short, stands for Accumulation (, Manipulation ), and Distribution (, helps traders better understand the trading strategies of investment organizations around key liquidity areas.

The accumulation phase, often marked by quiet sideways price action, took place from May 9 to June 20. During this phase, market participants build positions while volatility remains low, laying the groundwork for larger moves.

![])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-7fb501696bebbe55dd9106de0eed2018.webp(Ethereum Chart – 1 Day | Source: TradingViewNext is the manipulation, clearly visible in the rapid price drop below $2,200. Here, the price action attempts to trigger panic among retail investors and forces them to sell early or enter Short positions, and then the price exhibits a sharp reversal against the expected movement.

As ETH recovered from $2,200 to $2,500, institutional investment demand also increased accordingly. Data from Glassnode noted that spot ETH ETFs recorded a net inflow of 106,000 ETH last week, marking the seventh consecutive week of positive capital inflow. This volatility further confirms the transition of the setup to the final stage.

![])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-33610d898048d79f8470aa0bec0c7b22.webp(New capital flows into Ether spot ETF funds | Source: GlassnodeThe distribution phase is currently underway, during which ETH begins to move strongly in the opposite direction of the manipulation zone. The liquidity pools above become targets, and prices often accelerate when trapped positions are released. In the current market, the target for the Ether distribution phase is above $5,000, which represents a 100% increase from the current level.

The Power of 3 model reflects the price increase of Ether in 2016–2017. Thomas Lee, the head of Bitmine, emphasized this fractal and suggested that ETH may be preparing for the "strongest price surge," a surge that few expect, but is driven by institutional investors and long-term market structure.

Ether may face a 25% correction

Conversely, a bearish outlook may also emerge. Ether has the potential to drop 25% to $1,600 after failing to break through the technical resistance level and slipping below the lower boundary of a multi-year symmetrical triangle on the two-week chart.

At the same time, a giant ETH whale moved approximately 237 million USD worth of Ether from the staking platform to exchanges, with over 62,000 ETH transferred to Binance in 5 days. This wave of redistribution from large holders indicates increasing selling pressure and downside risk for ETH.

The trader exitpump also notes that Ether is struggling to break the resistance level of $2,500, with the current market shorting this altcoin. The chart shows that the total open contracts have increased, even as the price of ETH decreases.

Meanwhile, the short-term funding rate has turned negative and the spot trading volume has decreased, signaling increasing downward pressure. With immediate liquidity currently concentrated below the current range, the main bearish targets are between $2,275 and $2,350.

![])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-8d36acfe97c970c4b262e891255059c6.webp(Ether price, total open contracts, funding rate, spot volume | Source: Velo.chartVincent