Arthur Hayes warns that Bitcoin may pull back to $100,000! He has also reduced holdings in ETH, ENA, and PEPE, with institutional funds being the key support.

Arthur Hayes, the Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom Fund, has issued a warning that Bitcoin prices may face a pullback risk to $100,000 due to macroeconomic headwinds such as weak non-farm payroll data and sluggish global credit growth. On-chain data shows that Hayes has recently reduced his holdings of $8.32 million in ETH, $4.62 million in ENA, and $414,700 in PEPE, with his wallet currently holding $28.3 million in tokens (of which $22.95 million is USDC). Although some market views suggest that Bitcoin's Fluctuation is decreasing and the traditional cycle has ended, the poor performance of the alts season index raises doubts about the momentum of this bull run, while institutional funds continue to get on board, leading to ETH performing significantly better than BTC.

On-chain data reveals reduction actions, Hayes shifts to stablecoins for hedging Arthur Hayes, the Chief Investment Officer of the crypto hedge fund Maelstrom Fund, warns that under the impact of macroeconomic headwinds, the price of Bitcoin may face a deep pullback to $100,000. At the time of his remarks, on-chain analytics firm Lookonchain reported that Hayes' associated addresses had recently sold $8.32 million worth of ETH, $4.62 million of Ethena (ENA), and $414,700 of Pepe (PEPE) meme coin. According to tracking by Arkham Intelligence, the address currently holds assets valued at approximately $28.3 million, of which $22.95 million has been converted to stablecoin USDC, highlighting his short-term hedging strategy.

Non-farm payrolls surprise negatively, weak credit raises alarm Hayes explained his warning logic on the social media platform X, pointing to two key risk indicators: The U.S. July non-farm payroll data significantly missed expectations (with only 73,000 new jobs), and the continued weakness in credit growth in major economies. He believes these factors will exacerbate market concerns about the reintroduction of tariff policies and slowing nominal GDP growth, further suppressing the prices of risk assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, with potential drop targets pointing to $100,000 and $3,000 respectively.

The market is currently experiencing a serious divergence: Bitcoin's volatility drop vs. the conclusion of traditional cycles Hayes's cautious stance sharply contrasts with the current market's somewhat optimistic expectations. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas pointed out that since BlackRock submitted its Bitcoin spot ETF application in mid-2023, the price fluctuation of Bitcoin has significantly decreased. Blockware Solutions analyst Mitchell Askew further believes that the era of Bitcoin's "parabolic surges and catastrophic crashes" may be over. Braiins CEO Eli Nagar even stated on the X platform: "The Bitcoin cycle as we know it is dead... the current stage is incomparable to the past in terms of scale, structure, and risk dimensions."

Market divergence intensifies: ETH leads strongly, funds flowing into alts remain weak The current trading price of Bitcoin hovers around $113,000, and the slowing momentum has sparked discussions in the market about the peak of the bull run or a phase of consolidation. In contrast, Ethereum is driven by the inflow of spot ETF funds and strong institutional demand, having surged over 50% in July and maintaining above $3,450. It is worth noting that the Altcoin Season Index (which measures the performance of alts relative to BTC) currently stands at only 36, indicating that funds are highly concentrated in BTC and ETH, while mid and small-cap Tokens have not seen effective rotation. Analysts emphasize that the broad rally of altcoins is usually a key signal confirming a bull run, whereas currently, Bitcoin's market cap share remains above 60%, limiting the overall upward space.

Institutional funds become key support, ETH becomes the biggest beneficiary Despite concerns about pullbacks, institutional investors continuing to get on board still provide important support for the crypto market. Data shows that by 2025, corporate allocations to crypto assets have exceeded $86 billion, with JPMorgan estimating that new entry funds this year will exceed $60 billion. Against this backdrop, Ethereum has become the biggest beneficiary, maintaining a high daily trading volume, and large investors' interest in positions continues to heat up.

Conclusion: Arthur Hayes' warning of reduced holdings and market divergence highlights the dual challenges that crypto assets face from macro policies and intrinsic structures. Weak employment data and credit contraction may trigger a short-term pullback, but the large-scale entry of institutional funds is profoundly reshaping the market's operational logic. Investors should be cautious of the Bitcoin high volatility risk, focus on the ETH spot ETF fund flows, and pay attention to the alts seasonal index reversal signals, while closely tracking the deep impact of global central bank policy trends on crypto market liquidity. On-chain whale movements and stablecoin holding changes remain key indicators for predicting market sentiment.