Russian national rating agency: The digital ruble will boost the economy by $3.2 billion annually; commercial banks will face initial pressure but benefit in the long term.

The Russian National Rating Agency (NRA) released a significant report predicting that the comprehensive promotion of the digital ruble (CBDC) will bring an annual boost of up to 260 billion rubles (approximately 3.2 billion USD) to the Russian economy. Although commercial banks may face a pain of 8-10% decline in net profit during the initial promotion phase, by 2029, enterprises and banks themselves will gain considerable profits from smart contracts, cross-border transactions, and other new businesses. This article details the digital ruble roadmap, the impacts of various stages, and its strategic role in de-dollarization and BRICS cross-border settlement.

Digital Ruble Economic Impact Forecast: Annual Increase of 3.2 Billion USD, Benefits to Emerge After 2029

The Russian credit rating agency National Rating Agency (NRA) claims that the digital ruble will bring up to $3.2 billion in boost to the Russian economy each year. Russian media RBC and the state news agency TASS reported that this claim originates from the National Rating Agency (NRA). This credit rating agency is headquartered in Moscow and is authorized by the central bank to provide ratings for financial companies and government agencies. The NRA has released a comprehensive report on the estimated impact of the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) in Russia. The digital ruble is planned to be launched nationwide next year, using a phased adoption plan, with the country's largest banks starting to provide CBDC services in the fall of next year. Smaller companies are given time until 2027 or 2028 to start accepting the currency. However, the government hopes to use CBDC for welfare payments, such as child allowances and pensions. The NRA acknowledged that the initial adoption of the plan may incur costs for both the private and public sectors. However, it stated that the digital ruble project will quickly become profitable. The agency claimed that by 2031, the CBDC will inject up to 260 billion rubles (32 billion USD) into the Russian economy annually. This currency will also bring "up to 50 billion rubles (6.19 billion USD)" in revenue to the banking sector each year. Bank officials had previously expressed skepticism about the CBDC, claiming they did not understand why Moscow needed to issue this currency.

Phased Promotion: Large Enterprises Benefit First, Banks Under Pressure Initially

At the end of July, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law that established a comprehensive roadmap for the adoption of the digital ruble starting from September 1, 2026. The agency stated that companies and governments "may start to feel the benefits of this currency between 2029 and 2031." The NRA stated that in the initial years of adoption, large enterprises are expected to earn between 30 billion to 50 billion rubles (371 million to 619 million USD) annually from this currency. NRA analysts added that, at the same time, credit institutions expect to earn up to 8 billion rubles (99 million USD). But there are also warnings. The agency stated that the launch of the digital ruble could cause banks to lose customers due to "new services". Experts calculated that this could lead to a net profit decline of 8-10%. However, the agency indicated that these initial losses would translate into later gains for the banks. After the full launch of the project, banks will be able to gain up to 61 billion rubles (755 million USD) in "additional income" from smart contracts-driven business, interbank transactions, and corporate liquidity management services.

Controversies and Strategic Value: Internal Doubts and Cross-Border Application Potential

In July of this year, Herman Gref, the chairman of Sberbank, stated that he sees "no real advantages" for citizens, banks, or businesses. Gref mentioned that the experiments with digital fiat currency have yet to prove their value. He added that all financial transactions in Russia have already been digitized, which means that CBDC addresses a problem that does not even exist. However, the Ministry of Finance hopes to use CBDC in national contract issuance. It believes this will help eliminate corruption and improve transparency. Moscow is also considered eager to conduct CBDC-driven business with its BRICS partners. Many BRICS member countries, especially China, have made significant progress in their respective digital fiat currencies. BRICS members believe that cross-border CBDC solutions will help countries mitigate the impact of U.S.-led sanction schemes. Moscow officials have long expressed a desire to achieve de-dollarization in Russia's trade sector and believe that crypto or CBDC-driven solutions will enable them to do so.

Conclusion

The advancement of the digital ruble in Russia demonstrates a clear development path for central bank digital currencies: initially driven by strong policy support and bearing the transformation costs of commercial banks, and in the medium to long term, it aims to realize significant economic value through activating smart contracts finance, cross-border CBDC settlement (especially among BRICS countries), and enhancing fiscal transparency. Despite facing skepticism from major domestic banks, its strategic significance in overcoming international sanctions and promoting trade de-dollarization may far exceed internal controversies. For the global CBDC landscape, Russia's practice provides an important case led by the state, focusing on geopolitical considerations.