Bitcoin short-term surge hits resistance, market expectations show divergence

Recently, the price of Bitcoin once surged towards the $110,000 mark but failed to maintain the breakthrough. Nevertheless, several analysts remain optimistic about the medium to long-term prospects of Bitcoin. The research director of 10x Research believes that driven by factors such as the influx of funds into spot ETFs, uncertainty in Federal Reserve policies, and a decrease in exchange supply, Bitcoin is expected to rise to $116,000 by the end of this month. Some analysts even provided higher target prices, such as $112,000, $135,000, etc. Based on the logic of global broad money supply hitting a new high, some analysts predict that the price of Bitcoin could rise to $170,000 and believe that by the end of 2025, the common forecast range is between $150,000 and $200,000.

However, short-term risks still exist. The current most direct resistance level is at $112,000, where there are a large number of sell orders. Technical analysis shows that when the price surged to $110,500, a bearish divergence formed across multiple time frames. If it cannot break through, the support target range below is between $106,000 and $107,500. A well-known industry figure has also issued a short-term warning, pointing out that recent U.S. policies may lead to a short-term contraction of dollar liquidity, potentially causing Bitcoin prices to drop to the range of $90,000 to $95,000. If the impact is limited, Bitcoin may fluctuate around $100,000, but it will be difficult to break through the $112,000 high. He expects that before the Federal Reserve chairman's speech at the end of August, the market may move sideways or decline slightly, and after liquidity is restored in early September, Bitcoin may welcome an increase.

In the altcoin market, although some tokens have seen slight increases recently, most are still on the decline. Notably, some emerging tokens are performing actively, such as $PENGU, $LuckyCoin, and $invest. Among them, $LuckyCoin has risen by 814% in the past 24 hours, with a market cap reaching $6.4 million; $invest's 24-hour increase is 140%, with a market cap of $7.2 million.

In terms of macroeconomics, the U.S. non-farm payroll data for June exceeded expectations, with an increase of 147,000 jobs and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. This strong employment report prompted interest rate futures traders to abandon bets on a rate cut in July, with market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September dropping from 98% to 80%. However, a team of analysts at Goldman Sachs holds an opposing view, having lowered their yield forecasts for U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities and insisting that the Federal Reserve will consecutively cut rates in September, October, and December.

In terms of compliance in the cryptocurrency industry, a certain stablecoin issuer recently applied for a national trust bank license in the United States, which is considered a landmark event for the development of the industry. This move may set a compliance benchmark for stablecoin regulation in the United States, promote industry standardization, and assist in integrating stablecoins into anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing systems, enhancing international competitiveness and attracting participation from traditional financial institutions.

Overall, although the Bitcoin market may face some fluctuations and adjustments in the short term, the long-term outlook is still generally optimistic. Investors should closely monitor market trends and macroeconomic changes, and manage risks appropriately.