ADA Price Prediction: With selling pressure from whales, the road to reclaiming $1 is bumpy. Will July be a turning point?

ADA Recent Performance: Struggling to Rebound, but Still Under Pressure in the Long Term

Despite facing selling pressure from whales, Cardano (ADA) still struggles to reclaim the $1 mark. According to Gate data, the current trading price of ADA is about $0.58, having risen 6.6% in the past week, pushing its market cap above $21 billion. However, the overall outlook is mixed: ADA has still fallen 11.9% in the last 30 days and is down nearly 50% from its $1 peak set on March 3rd. Although bulls have made multiple attempts to return to this level since then, each effort has ultimately ended in failure.

July Outlook: Potential Turning Points and Key Resistance Levels

Some market analysts view July as a potential turning point for ADA. As the third quarter approaches, broader cryptocurrency market bullish sentiment is slowly returning, and the market focus has shifted to $0.70, which is seen as the next key resistance level. If it can successfully break through this area, especially with macro conditions and liquidity continuing to improve, ADA is expected to reopen the journey to hit the $1 target.

Fundamental Catalyst: Cardano Expands Enterprise-level Applications

An important fundamental catalyst that could reignite investor interest is Cardano's efforts to move beyond its traditional DeFi and staking sectors. On July 8, the Cardano Foundation announced the launch of Reeve (a new enterprise-grade financial reporting platform built on the Cardano blockchain). Reeve enables institutions to publish tamper-proof financial data directly on-chain, providing a transparent and audit-friendly solution, and can integrate with existing accounting systems. This type of enterprise-focused development is expected to strengthen Cardano's fundamental narrative, especially for institutional investors seeking scalable blockchain infrastructure.

ADA Technical Analysis: Wedge Waiting to Break, Indicators Showing Initial Improvement

From a technical analysis perspective, ADA has formed a typical reversal pattern - descending wedge on the daily chart, which usually indicates that a trend reversal is imminent. Supporting this view is the fact that momentum indicators such as the MACD indicator and Relative Strength Index (RSI) have begun to trend upwards, indicating that market sentiment is gradually shifting from selling pressure to buying pressure.

• Bullish Trigger Point: Confirming a breakthrough of the wedge upper resistance level (0.6053 USD) will be the first bullish signal. If successfully broken, the next key resistance level is at 0.73 USD, which means there is 25.8% potential upside from the current level.
• Key Support Level: However, the premise of this optimistic scenario is that ADA must hold its key support level of $0.54. If it falls below this level, the bullish pattern will completely fail.

Risk Warning: Continuous Whale Selling Constitutes Headwind

However, not all indicators are favorable for bulls. According to Santiment data, over the past two weeks, ADA whale wallets have sold more than 170 million ADA, indicating that confidence among large holders is declining. Such smart money outflows typically signal weak short-term expectations and may continue to pose resistance to any short-term rebound in ADA.

Short-term outlook summary: Break through key resistance to challenge 1 USD

Therefore, unless the bulls can regain control and turn the 0.73 USD resistance level into support, the likelihood of ADA achieving sustainable growth to 1 USD in the short term remains low. Conversely, if ADA loses the 0.54 USD key support zone, it could trigger a deeper correction, probing down to 0.50 USD, and may even retest the wedge bottom area around 0.44 USD, at which point stronger buyer interest may ultimately return.