Market Status Analysis: BTC Faces Adjustment Pressure After Hitting New Highs

Recently, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a strong surge, with Bitcoin (BTC) reaching an all-time high. However, with changes in U.S. policies and increasing global economic uncertainty, market sentiment has begun to fluctuate.

Macroeconomic Situation

A major fiscal bill recently introduced in the United States has raised concerns in the market. The bill involves reforms in multiple areas but could also lead to a significant increase in the U.S. debt ceiling. This move has caused the market to doubt the U.S. government's ability to service its debt, resulting in a decline in the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries.

As a result, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has risen to a high of 4.5%. High bond yields may suppress corporate investment and consumer spending, which in turn can affect corporate profitability and put pressure on the stock market.

The global financial markets have been impacted, with the three major US stock indexes all experiencing declines, and the US dollar index also ended its previous streak of gains. In contrast, the gold market performed relatively well, with the London gold price rising by nearly 2%.

Performance of the Cryptocurrency Market

In the midst of global market turmoil, Bitcoin has shown strong upward momentum, achieving positive returns for seven consecutive weeks. Multiple favorable factors have driven Bitcoin to break historical highs, once reaching $112,000.

From a technical perspective, the price of Bitcoin is running above the upward trend line, and the trading volume has increased. The weekly MACD indicator shows positive signals. Nevertheless, considering the recent significant rise and changes in the external market environment, there may be a certain degree of adjustment in the short term.

Changes in the Policy Environment

The United States and Hong Kong have made significant progress in the regulation of stablecoins. The U.S. Senate has passed a procedural vote on a stablecoin regulatory framework, laying the groundwork for the development of this sector. The Hong Kong Legislative Council has also officially passed the "Stablecoin Bill", establishing a comprehensive licensing and regulatory system.

These policy developments indicate that, in addition to Bitcoin as a store of value, decentralized applications (DApps) based on smart contract platforms and the Web3 ecosystem are also gaining recognition from governments around the world, which is of significant importance for the development of the entire blockchain industry.

Capital Flow Analysis

Despite fluctuations in traditional financial markets, the cryptocurrency market has maintained a high level of trading enthusiasm. Over the past week, the market has continued to show a net inflow of funds, totaling $5.574 billion. Among them, stablecoins, Bitcoin spot ETFs, and Ethereum spot ETFs have attracted significant amounts of capital.

It is worth noting that as the price of Bitcoin reaches new highs, some long-term holders have started to reduce their holdings. This week, the amount of Bitcoin flowing into exchanges has significantly increased, reaching 159,869.37 BTC. Although the total amount of Bitcoin on centralized exchanges is still decreasing, the outflow rate has slowed down.

Market Outlook

Currently, the Bitcoin market is still in an upward trend, but is facing the possibility of a short-term adjustment. The EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is at 0.75, indicating that the market is still in an upward phase. However, investors need to closely monitor the subsequent developments of U.S. fiscal policy and its impact on the global financial market, as this may become an important factor influencing the cryptocurrency market for the foreseeable future.